Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to call up hundreds of thousands of new soldiers to fight in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the Kremlin struggles to balance a mounting casualty count with a Russian public increasingly weary of the war. Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News that Putin would mobilize between 300,000 and 500,000 people for Russia's military at the start of October. A new wave of mobilization would mark a significant escalation in the nearly four-and-a-half-year conflict and would risk inflaming public discontent inside Russia, where the human and economic costs of the invasion are becoming more difficult to hide.
Speaking with British broadcaster Sky News, Zelensky said it would not be "that difficult" for Putin to mobilize up to half a million troops. Putin "will throw poorly trained people on the battlefield," the Ukrainian leader said. "Putin is preparing to simply send more Russians to war." Zelensky's comments reflect a growing belief among Ukrainian and Western officials that Moscow is preparing for a large-scale conscription push, even as Russian authorities publicly deny the need for a new mobilization order.
Russia's previous large-scale mobilization in the fall of 2022, when Putin called up around 300,000 reservists, triggered nationwide protests and an exodus of tens of thousands of men seeking to avoid military service. That mobilization was deeply unpopular, and the Kremlin has since attempted to avoid another similar draft by relying on volunteers, offering increasingly high financial incentives, and recruiting from prisons and foreign allies. However, the latest warnings suggest these measures have been insufficient to meet the demands of the battlefield.
A new mobilization would be a clear sign of the strain that nearly four and a half years of fighting has placed on Russia's armed forces and its economy. According to a poll by the independent Russian pollster the Levada Center published in May, only one in four Russians supported continuing the war in Ukraine. The same poll indicated growing concern among Russians about the war's impact on their daily lives, including rising prices, shortages, and the loss of family members. Public opinion has shifted significantly from the early days of the invasion, when many Russians expressed patriotic fervor and trust in state media narratives.
Russia Not Meeting Recruiting Targets
Ukrainian intelligence and Western military analysts have repeatedly warned that Russia is struggling to meet its recruitment goals while compensating for staggering losses on the front lines. Ukraine's foreign intelligence service reported that Russia had missed its army recruitment target by roughly 30,000 people in the first three months of 2026. To fill the gap, the Kremlin has been forced to increase sign-on bonuses for those who volunteer to fight, offering payments that far exceed average civilian wages. Yet even with those measures, the inflow of new recruits has not kept pace with the number of soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine.
Zelensky noted that roughly 221,000 people had joined the Russian military so far this year, but that Moscow had sustained 225,500 casualties in the same period. That means the replacement rate of soldiers is barely covering the loss rate, leaving the Russian military with a chronic shortage of experienced manpower. Casualty estimates from the military and Western intelligence agencies put Russia's total losses since February 2022 at around 1.4 million killed and wounded. While exact numbers are impossible to verify, both sides have used casualty figures for propaganda purposes, and independent experts suggest the true toll is likely staggering.
To make up for the shortfall, Russia has relied heavily on "meat-grinder" tactics, a term used to describe the practice of sending waves of poorly trained soldiers against enemy positions to wear down defenses. This approach, notorious for producing high casualty counts, has enabled Russia to make slow territorial gains in eastern Ukraine but at an extraordinary cost in human lives. Russian soldiers have been deployed to the front lines with minimal training, sometimes within days of being inducted into the military, according to Western officials, Ukrainian authorities, and military experts. Many are older reservists or men from poor rural regions who have little military experience and are sent into battle with outdated equipment and inadequate medical support.
Moscow has also expanded its recruitment pool to include prisoners, offering pardons and payment to convicts who agree to fight in Ukraine. This strategy has been used extensively since early 2023, with tens of thousands of prisoners sent to the front lines. In addition, Russia has turned to foreign fighters to supplement its forces. According to estimates, roughly 12,000 North Korean soldiers have already been deployed to Russia, and Zelensky said on Saturday that Moscow was looking to bring an additional 30,000 North Korean troops into the country. The involvement of North Korean forces, which has been confirmed by intelligence reports from South Korea and the United States, marks a deepening alliance between the two countries and a further internationalization of the conflict.
Economic Strain and Social Pressure
The war has taken a severe toll on Russia's economy. The government has shifted vast resources toward the production of military equipment, tanks, artillery shells, and drones, redirecting funds away from healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Inflation has risen, the ruble has weakened, and labor shortages have emerged as hundreds of thousands of men have been either mobilized or killed. The human cost is also being felt in communities across the country, particularly in ethnic minority regions and poor rural areas that have contributed a disproportionate share of soldiers.
Public discontent over the war has grown as the Kremlin has tightened control over independent media and political opposition. Anti-war protests have been met with mass arrests, and the authorities have introduced strict censorship laws that criminalize criticism of the armed forces. Despite these efforts, independent polling suggests that only about a quarter of Russians actively support continuing the invasion. The rest are either weary of the war, indifferent, or quietly hostile, according to analysts. The Levada Center, Russia's oldest independent polling organization, has been designated as a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, yet its data is widely seen as one of the few reliable measures of Russian public opinion.
The timing of the new mobilization, if it occurs, is significant. Zelensky said the predicted call-up would come shortly after Russia holds elections for hundreds of politicians to sit in the country's Duma, the lower parliamentary house. These will be the first parliamentary elections since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The elections, while not genuinely competitive under Russia's authoritarian system, are seen by the Kremlin as an opportunity to demonstrate popular legitimacy. However, announcing a major mobilization in the midst of an electoral period could be politically risky, as it may further depress turnout and erode support for Putin's United Russia party.
Analysts have noted that past mobilizations have often been timed to avoid maximum public attention, but the sheer scale of the current military campaign makes another massive draft almost unavoidable. Russia's front-line units continue to suffer heavy losses, and the military command has been unable to provide adequate rest and rotation for soldiers who have been in combat for months on end. Soldiers who have completed their contracted service are reportedly being pressured to re-enlist, and draft notices have been issued in some regions to men who had previously been exempt due to age or health conditions.
The possibility of a new mobilization has also raised concerns in neighboring countries, particularly the Baltic states and Poland, which worry that a further escalation could result in an expanded conflict. NATO officials have responded by increasing their own military readiness and rotating additional forces to the eastern flank. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to press its allies for more air defense systems, long-range weapons, and deeper support as it faces both a renewed Russian offensive and the prospect of tens of thousands of additional enemy troops arriving on the battlefield.
Zelensky's warning about a new Russian mobilization is not without precedent. In the summer of 2023, after a prolonged Ukrainian counteroffensive, there were growing signs that Russia was preparing a second wave of conscription. Those reports did not materialize into a full-scale call-up at that time, largely because the Kremlin was able to find enough volunteers and prisoners to sustain its operations. But with more than 1,000 Russian casualties per day in recent months, even that expanded pool has begun to dry up. Ukraine's foreign intelligence service has also reported that many potential recruits are fleeing Russia or declaring themselves unfit for service, making it harder for the military to meet its quotas.
As the war enters its fifth year, the human and economic costs are increasingly impossible for ordinary Russians to ignore. A wave of mobilization on the scale Zelensky describes would represent a desperate measure, but one that many military analysts believe is likely. With the Duma elections approaching and public opinion souring, Putin faces a difficult balancing act: he must keep the war machine running in Ukraine, yet avoid provoking a domestic backlash that could threaten his grip on power. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Kremlin is indeed prepared to send another half-million Russians into an already devastating conflict.
Source: Newsweek News